华盛顿邮报：中国拚命造舰 志在统一台湾(转自青年评论)

提交日期：2004-3-21 14:59:00  
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　　编译杨清顺／综合报导
　　
　　美国华盛顿邮报廿日刊出专文，报导中国全力发展海军，志在统一台湾。
　　
　　报导说，外国军事专家发现，共军在过去一年半特别集中强化海军。其原因主要是一旦台湾跨越北京当局的底线宣布独立，共军可以提供可靠的军事手段。一位驻节北京的外国武官说：「他们拚命造舰，非常可怕。」
　　
　　这位武官说，共军过去十二个月约有七十艘军舰开工建造，包括一些登陆舰艇。他们还考虑再向俄罗斯购买两艘现代级飞弹驱逐舰及交涉添购或已经购买基洛级潜舰。
　　
　　中国已有约五百枚飞弹瞄准台湾，但外国官员及军事专家说，他们不认为共军有能力攻台。新建或新买的军舰与装备要再过几年才能完成整备与人员培训，美国国防部推估共军现在只能由海路运送一个师登陆台湾。
　　
　　但是这些专家有人推断，共军加紧造舰，加上其他采购与训练，不出几年就可以提供北京领导阶层有限的军事手段，虽然可能还不能发动全面进攻。台湾问题未来可能进入最危险的阶段，北京当局应付的能力将因此大为增强。
　　
　　据外国专家和接近中国决策阶层的大陆学者说，不管台湾总统大选结果如何，中国国家主席胡锦涛眼前可能还不会采取军事反应。北京一位学者说，即使陈水扁当选连任，公投过关，中国还是可能继续采取现行政策，和平对待台湾。
　　
　　这位学者预测，真正的考验会在二○○六年来临。中国领导阶层担心台会再举行公投，更明目张胆走向正式宣布独立。
　　
　　外国军事专家推断，共军针对台湾推动现代化，目的在让中共领导阶层必要时可以发动某种形式的攻击，同时将美国介入的风险减到最低，使美国不敢轻举妄动。
　　
　　但是台湾问题并非中共扩军的唯一考量。中共对进口石油的需求日增，必须保护中东的航道。中共是亚洲强权，必须投射国力，军事力量和经济力量宣同样重要。
　　
　　【2004/03/21 联合报】
　　
　　With Taiwan in Mind, China Focuses Military Expansion on Navy
　　
　　By Edward Cody
　　Washington Post Foreign Service
　　Saturday, March 20, 2004; Page A12
　　
　　
　　SHANGHAI, March 19 -- The dull gray hulls of four sleek new fighting ships, bristling with cannons, radar antennas and bulbous electronic pods, bob beside the Huangpu River shipyards where they are in the final stages of construction for the Chinese navy.
　　
　　
　　
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　　Giant military transports float placidly nearby, getting fitted under the supervision of uniformed officers to boost the Chinese military’s ability to move men and materiel across the sea. A submarine, its coal-black coating marred by rust, protrudes from muddy river waters just upstream in the shadow of Shanghai’s busy skyscrapers.
　　
　　Viewed from a commuter ferry, these are the outward signs of China’s military modernization program, a campaign to improve what experts count as the world’s largest fighting force, with more than 2 million members. The effort, widely hailed by Chinese leaders, has been underway for years. But it has accelerated markedly since the late 1990s, when then-President Jiang Zemin concluded that China needed a more potent and up-to-date military if it was to compete seriously in the world arena and back up its policy on reuniting Taiwan with the mainland.
　　
　　For the past 18 months, foreign military experts have observed, the military has concentrated particularly on strengthening its sea power. The main reason, they say, is to provide the government in Beijing with a credible military option if Taiwan crosses Beijing’s red line -- a formal declaration of independence -- and brings the long-simmering standoff to a boil.
　　
　　“These people are building ships like nobody’s business,“ a military attache in Beijing said. “It’s mind-boggling.“
　　
　　Construction has begun on about 70 military ships over the last 12 months, including a number of landing craft, and China is considering acquisition of another two Soviet-designed Sovremenny-class destroyers to complement the three it already owns, he added. More Kilo-class submarines are the subject of negotiations or already purchased, adding to the four bought several years ago.
　　
　　Although China has an estimated 500 missiles capable of hitting Taiwan, 100 miles off the mainland, foreign officials and military experts say they do not believe the Chinese military has the training to mount an invasion. The newly built or newly purchased ships and equipment have yet to be fitted and manned, a process that takes several years. The Pentagon estimates that China now has the ability to sealift only about one division, or 10,000 men.
　　
　　But some of these observers have concluded that the rapid shipbuilding program, combined with other acquisitions and training, could provide China’s leaders with a limited military option -- probably short of a full invasion -- within several years. That would greatly strengthen Beijing’s hand when, in the eyes of Chinese leaders, the most dangerous period of the Taiwan crisis is likely to arise.
　　
　　According to foreign experts and Chinese academics with access to Beijing’s decision-makers, President Hu Jintao’s government is unlikely to resort to an immediate military response no matter the outcome of Saturday’s voting in Taiwan. Even if President Chen Shui-bian wins reelection and voters approve the referendums on whether Taiwan and China should talk on an equal footing and whether Taiwan should buy more advanced missile defense equipment, China could continue to deal with Taiwan peacefully under its present policy, said a Beijing-based scholar who spoke on condition of anonymity.
　　
　　The real test would come in 2006 or later, he predicted. That is when China’s leaders fear a second Taiwan referendum, this one more explicitly aimed at a formal declaration of independence.
　　
　　Foreign military experts in contact with Chinese officers have concluded that the goal of the Taiwan-oriented military modernization is to provide the leadership with the ability to inflict some kind of attack should the need arise, while at the same time making any U.S. intervention to protect the self-governing island at least a little dangerous, forcing Washington to think twice.
　　
　　Against this background, China’s leadership has repeatedly urged the military to improve its electronic and information technology abilities. Both were found badly lacking when U.S. naval forces moved into the region as a protective gesture after China test-fired missiles near Taiwan in the lead-up to Chen’s election in 2000.
　　
　　Jiang, who still heads the Communist Party’s Central Military Commission, emphasized information technology, mechanization and professional training for military personnel during a meeting with members of the national legislature during its annual session last week.
　　
　　“It is a profound revolution in the development of our armed forces,“ said Jiang, seated next to President Hu. In a photo distributed by the official New China News Agency, both wore olive green military-style uniforms, without insignia, in a departure from their usual suit-and-tie orthodoxy. “We must seize the hard-to-get historical opportunities and bring the reform into depth.“
　　
　　Although the most immediate, the Taiwan standoff is far from being China’s only military consideration. With ever-growing needs for imported oil, China has sea lanes from the Middle East to protect. And with its increasing role as an Asian power, it sees a need to project its strength along its borders and farther afield, with military as well as economic might.
　　
　　Announced budget allocations for China’s military have risen by double digits almost every year for more than a decade. Finance Minister Jin Renquing announced last week that the 2004 budget will be about $25 billion, up 11.6 percent from last year.
　　
　　Ding Jiye, finance head of the People’s Liberation Army General Logistics Department, pointed out to the New China News Agency that the military’s spending still amounted to only 1.7 percent of China’s gross domestic product, compared with what he said was an average of 3 percent worldwide. The Pentagon estimates, however, that if unannounced programs are taken into account, China’s military spending is several times the announced sum.
　　
　　Notoriously secretive, the Chinese military does not reveal specifics of its spending or its equipment acquisitions. But statements from the leadership, such as Jiang’s last week, have led foreign experts to conclude that improving training in the use of high-tech equipment is a pressing goal.
　　
　　The People’s Liberation Army reduced its manpower by 500,000 in the late 1990s, chiefly by transferring men to the People’s Armed Police. The leadership in Beijing has called for another 200,000 troops to be shed by 2005, seeking to save badly needed funds and concentrate on high tech instead.