时文阅读~（可针对研究生考试）

牛津大学将增加海外生源
Oxford University to reduce intake of UK students in favour of foreigners


Oxford University is to reduce its intake of British undergraduate students in order to increase the proportion coming from overseas.


The academic “rebalancing” strategy, announced yesterday, was part of an attempt to increase competition for places further and “improve quality” according to John Hood, the vice-chancellor.

Non-EU nationals make up about 7 per cent of Oxford's undergraduate body, a figure Dr Hood would like to raise to 12 per cent. UK universities have seen a sharp rise in the numbers of students coming from overseas in recent years, with most of the growth coming from Asia.

Dr Hood, a New Zealander, said he also wanted to challenge American institutions' research supremacy through the proposed changes, which include expanding the number of graduate researchers at Oxford from the current comparatively low level.

A greater influx of foreigners should also improve the university's stretched finances. The strategy document warned of a “deeply problematic funding environment”, despite a planned increase for tuition fees in 2006 for students from the UK and the European Union to a maximum of £3,000 a year from £1,200. Non-EU students, by contrast, pay close to £10,000 a year. University heads throughout the UK are increasingly relying on higher fee-paying non-EU students to balance their budgets.

Outlining its consultation on wide-ranging reforms to the university, the management team, headed by Dr Hood, said it did not share the views of some heads of Oxford's 39 colleges who have threatened to take the institution private to avoid government regulation.

“Some members of the university have become so frustrated by the constraints imposed by government that they have called for privatisation,” the document said.

“Oxford is, in fact, a private institution already but one which is dependent on government for a significant part of its income. What Oxford needs is not to forego income from public sources but to increase its private income substantially.”

More public money and more private revenue would be needed to prevent a decline in the university's international competitiveness, he warned.

The strategic plan also outlined the need to improve alumni and philanthropic fundraising to supplement earnings from other commercial activities such as licensing and the Oxford University Press.


牛津大学(Oxford University)将减招英国籍本科生，以增加海外生源比例。


副校长约翰•胡德(John Hood)表示，昨天宣布的这一生源“再调整”战略，是进一步增加生源地的竞争、“提高质量”努力的一部分。

非欧盟国家公民占牛津本科生生源的约7%，胡德博士想要把这一数字提高至12%。近年来，英国各大学的海外留学生人数急剧上升，新增生源大多来自亚洲。

新西兰人胡德博士表示，他也希望通过这些拟议的变革措施，挑战美国院校在研究领域的至高地位。这些变革包括扩大牛津的研究生人数，目前该数字处于相对较低的水平。

增加外国学生的招生人数还应能改善牛津大学资金吃紧的状况。尽管计划在2006年把英国和欧盟学生每年的学费从1200英镑提至最高达3000英镑，但该战略文件警告说，“筹资环境十分成问题”。相比之下，非欧盟学生每年学费接近1万英镑。英国各大学的领导们为了平衡预算，正日益依赖支付更高学费的非欧盟学生。

牛津大学这次改革牵涉面广。由胡德博士领导的管理团队概述了改革的征求意见内容，表示不同意牛津大学39个学院部分负责人的观点，这些人曾威胁要将该机构私有化，以避免政府监管。

“政府施加的诸多限制措施已使大学的一些成员变得十分灰心，因而要求私有化，”该文件表示。

“牛津事实上已经是一个私有机构，但大学的大部分收入要依赖政府。牛津所需要的不是放弃来自公共部门的收入，而是大幅增加来自私人部门的收入。”

他警告说，为了防止牛津大学的国际竞争力下降，牛津需要更多的公共资金和私人部门收入。

该战略性计划还概述了改善校友和慈善筹资的必要性，以补充来自许可转让和牛津大学出版社等其它商业活动带来的收入。

译者/李裕

这里应该弄些信管专业毕业论文的8000英文资料！

毕业那会而倒也给人翻过～

not my major
can't help

这里应该弄些信管专业毕业论文的8000英文资料！

伦敦油库爆炸引发对恐怖袭击担忧
Huge explosions hit UK fuel depot

周日清晨，英国最大的油库之一发生大爆炸，高达数百英尺的烈焰直冲云霄。
Huge explosions ripped through one of the UK’s largest fuel depots on Sunday morning, sending a tower of flames hundreds of feet into the sky.

爆炸发生在伦敦以北赫默尔亨普斯特德镇附近的邦斯菲尔德油库，该油库由法国道达尔石油公司(Total)和美国德士古石油公司(Texaco)共同经营。爆炸引发了据悉是英国25年来最大的一次燃油大火。这场大火可能继续燃烧多日。
The blasts at the Buncefield oil depot, operated jointly by Total and Texaco near Hemel Hempstead, north of London, caused what is believed to be Britain’s biggest oil fire for a quarter of a century. The fire could continue to burn for days.

远在40英里外都能听到这些爆炸，它们引燃了燃油，产生滚滚的黑色浓烟，浓烟正向东蔓延，覆盖周围广大地区。
The explosions were heard up to 40 miles away and ignited fuel supplies causing a cloud of thick black smoke to spread eastwards over the surrounding area.

警方表示，受伤人数达43人，其中4人伤势严重。
Police said there were 43 casualties, with four people seriously hurt.

大火将使人们质疑英国各地油库的安全状况。尽管警方表示，爆炸据信是一次意外事故，但此次事故可能会使人们对油库和炼油厂易遭恐怖袭击的危险更加担心。
The blaze will raise questions over the safety of oil depots around the country. Though police said the blasts were believed to be an accident, the incident could also increase fears over the vulnerability of oil depots and refineries to terrorist attack.

第一次爆炸发生在早上6点03分，地点位于赫特福德郡Leverstock Green的燃油仓库，靠近M1公路的8号交叉路口。
The first blast happened at 6.03 am at the fuel terminal in Leverstock Green, Hertfordshire, close to junction 8 of the M1 motorway.

油罐车驾驶员保罗·特纳(Paul Turner)当时已到油库上班，他说爆炸将他掀离地面。“我看见这个大火球从建筑后面冒出来，火球直径约50米，”他对英国广播公司(BBC)电台说。
Paul Turner, a tanker driver who had arrived for work at the depot, said the blast lifted him off his feet. “I just saw this great big ball of fire come up from behind the building. It was about 50 metres wide,” he told BBC radio.

“然后是我这辈子听到过的最大爆炸声。它把我掀了起来。”
“Then there was the loudest explosion I have ever heard in my life. It took me off my feet.”

赫特福德郡警察局长弗兰克·怀特利(Frank Whiteley)说：“目前阶段的所有迹象都表明，这是一起意外事故。但显然，我们在完全确定起因之前，不会排除其它可能。”
Frank Whiteley, chief constable of Hertfordshire police, said: “All indications at this stage are that this was an accident. However, clearly we will keep an open mind until we can confirm that for certain.”

他表示，现场作业表明将会进一步发生爆炸。目前有逾200名警察与消防员在现场执行任务。
He said operations at the scene, involving more than 200 police and firefighters, meant there would be further explosions.

他警告人们要小心笼罩在周围地区的浓烟。“这片烟雾不仅仅含有大量烟雾，它还具有刺激性，会使吸入的人咳嗽、眼睛不适，并可能感到恶心。”
He warned people to beware of the plume of smoke, hanging over the surrounding area. “This cloud, not least because it does contain heavy smoke, is an irritant, and would certainly make people who inhale it potentially cough, potentially irritate the eyes, and potentially feel nauseous.”

警方认为，先前说这场事故与一架飞机有关的传言不可信。
Police have discounted earlier rumours that a plane was involved in the incident.

赫特福德郡消防总长罗伊·威尔舍(Roy Wilsher)表示：“这肯定是我所见过的最大一场大火。你得追溯到米尔福德港大火时，才有如此规模的大火。”
Roy Wilsher, Hertfordshire’s chief fire officer, said: “This is certainly the biggest fire that I have seen. You have to go back as far as Milford Haven to see a fire on this scale.”

目击者称，在第一次爆炸发生后，在上午6点26分和6点27分，又发生了两次爆炸。
Witnesses said two more explosions followed the first at 6.26am and 6.27am.

道达尔公司表示：“我们在尽全力支持紧急服务部门，使局势得到控制。”
Total said: “We are doing everything we can to support the emergency services and to bring the situation under control.”

邦斯菲尔德是英国第5大油库，报告储存容量约15万吨。除石油和汽油外，该油库还储存了大量航空煤油，用来供应该地区内的机场，包括希思罗和卢顿机场。
Buncefield is the country’s fifth-largest oil distribution depot, with a reported storage capacity of about 150,000 tonnes. As well as oil and petrol, it also holds large stocks of the aviation fuel kerosene, used to supply airports across the region including Heathrow and Luton.

英国管道公司(British Pipeline)经营的一条高压石油管道从北林肯郡(North Lincolnshire)的林赛炼油厂(Lindsey Oil Refinery)延伸至邦斯菲尔德油库。
A high pressure oil pipeline, run by British Pipeline, runs from the Lindsey Oil Refinery in North Lincolnshire to Buncefield site.

英国石油(BP)和壳牌(Shell)也使用该油库，油库通常每天24小时作业，通过26个储油罐灌满400辆油罐车。
The depot, which is also used by BP and Shell, usually operates 24 hours a day, filling 400 tankers each day from 26 storage tanks.

英国石油行业协会(UK Petroleum Industry Association)的公关主管尼克·范德维尔(Nick Vandervell)说：“就其规模来说，该设施非常重要。该油库由管道供油，道达尔拥有来自林赛炼油厂的汽油、柴油和航油管道……而邦斯菲尔德油库将航油通过管道输送到希思罗机场。”
Nick Vandervell, communications director of the UK Petroleum Industry Association, said: “It is quite a significant facility in terms of its scale. The depot is fed by pipeline - Total have their own pipeline which comes down from the Lindsey refinery bringing petrol, diesel and jet fuel...The Buncefield plant is linked to a pipeline which goes from there and takes jet fuel to Heathrow.”

业内专家迅速否认大火将引起油价上涨。
Industry experts were quick to play down fears of a rise in oil prices because of the blaze.

汽油零售商协会(Petrol Retailers Association)的雷·霍洛韦(Ray Holloway)称，石油业有处理此类紧急情况的预案，包括启用英格兰东南部的其它仓库。
Ray Holloway, of the Petrol Retailers Association, said the oil industry had plans in place to deal with such an emergency, including the use of other depots in south-east England.

他说：“这个仓库在战略上很重要，但不具有关键重要性，对市场不会有什么影响，石油业将照常运转，极其高效地应对这一局面。”
He said: “This site is strategically important, but not critically important. There will be no market effect and the oil industry will do what it does and manage this extremely effectively.”

他说，尽管如此，有迹象显示，该地区的汽车驾驶者在听到爆炸消息后，已开始恐慌购买。“不光是赫默尔地区的居民投入恐慌购买，远在萨里郡克罗伊登市的人也在这么做。”
Even so there were signs that some motorists in the areas had already started panic buying after hearing news of the explosions, he said. “It’s not just people in the Hemel area who have been indulging in panic buying. Motorists as far away as Croydon in Surrey have been at it.”

英国制药商拟降价供应禽流感药物
GSK to offer discounts on pandemic flu drug

英国制药集团葛兰素史克(GlaxoSmithKline)首席执行官昨天承诺，公司将向寻求建立禽流感药物储备的发展中国家提供大幅降价的抗病毒药物Relenza。
GlaxoSmithKline, the UK-based pharmaceutical group, will offer its antiviral drug Relenza at a substantial discount to developing countries seeking to build pandemic flu stockpiles, the company's chief executive pledged yesterday.

首席执行官让-皮埃尔·加尼埃(Jean-Pierre Garnier)在接受《金融时报》采访时表示，葛兰素史克将提议建立一个Relenza“分级定价”体系，除了向拟将该药作为禽流感治疗药物的各国政府提供大幅降价外，还将以更低的价格向较贫穷国家销售该药。
In an interview with the Financial Times, Jean-Pierre Garnier said GSK would propose a system of “tiered pricing” for Relenza, selling it at cheaper rates to poorer nations on top of the already substantial discount on normal rates planned for governments using it to stockpile as a treatment for a pandemic.

这一行动与瑞士制药集团罗氏制药(Roche)形成鲜明对比。罗氏制药今年的抗病毒药物达菲(Tamiflu)的销售额可能达到10亿美元，但除了承诺以流行病折扣价向较贫穷国家提供药物外，该公司拒绝提供更多折扣。
The action stands in contrast to Roche, the Swiss drugs group, which is likely to generate $1bn in sales from its antiviral Tamiflu this year, but which has refused to offer additional discounts beyond its pandemic rate to poorer countries.

但对葛兰素史克来说，这一姿态基本上仍只有象征意义。葛兰素史克昨天公布第三季度净收入增长20%，至13亿英镑(合23亿美元)，销售额达55亿英镑，但今年前9个月Relenza的销售额仅300万英镑，基本上用于治疗季节性流感。
The gesture remains largely symbolic for GSK, however. The group yesterday reported a 20 per cent rise in third-quarter net income to £1.3bn ($2.3bn), on sales of £5.5bn, but Relenza had sales of just £3m in the first nine months, mostly for use in the treatment of seasonal flu.

加尼埃先生表示：“这是非常成功的一个季度，显示了发展势头，销售增长非常好，收益也处于行业最好水平。”他补充说，众多产品的良好业绩表明“我们的母舰有多部火箭发动机”。
“This was a very successful quarter that has showed momentum with sales growth very good and earnings among the best in the industry,” Mr Garnier said, adding that good performances for a number of products showed that “we have multiple rockets attached to the mothership”.

与罗氏一样，加尼埃先生表示，葛兰素史克对作为流行病药物的Relenza的订单应接不暇。公司已加大了生产，但也在寻求授权外部合作伙伴生产，以进一步提升产能。罗氏昨天表示，已有100家公司与它接触，这些公司接受了罗氏的提议，与其洽谈扩大达菲生产规模。该公司同时承认，可能会将一部分生产授权给仿制药公司，前提是它们能达到质量与产量要求。
In common with Roche, Mr Garnier said GSK was overwhelmed with pandemic orders for Relenza. It had stepped up production but was also seeking to license outside partners to help it further boost capacity. Roche said yesterday it had received approaches from 100 companies taking up its offer of discussions on how to scale up the output of Tamiflu, and acknowledged that it may be possible to license some production to generics companies provided they can meet quality and volume requirements.

Relenza已证明没有达菲受欢迎，部分是因为这种药物需要吸入。但许多专家已建议将它与达菲一起进行储备，不过该建议遇到一些抵制。
Relenza has proved less popular than Tamiflu, partly because it needs to be inhaled. However, a number of specialists have advised that it be stockpiled alongside Tamiflu, to which some resistance has been detected.

译者/伯弢

英国零售巨头老板给自己发放12亿英镑股息
Philip Green pays himself £1.2bn dividend

零售集团阿卡迪亚(Arcadia)老板菲利普•格林(Philip Green)周四透露，他已给自己发放12亿英镑股息。这一数字是阿卡迪亚年营业利润的三倍多。
Philip Green, the owner of Arcadia revealed on Thursday he has paid himself a £1.2bn dividend more than three times the retail group’s annual operating profits

格林先生控制着阿卡迪亚92%的股权。阿卡迪亚零售集团将向全部股东支付总额13亿英镑股息。哈利法克斯苏格兰银行(HBOS)将得到剩余部分的股息。在2002年格林先生出资8.5亿英镑收购阿卡迪亚时，该银行曾帮助他进行融资。
Arcadia Group, in which Mr Green controls 92 per cent of the shares, will pay a total £1.3bn in dividends to shareholders. HBOS, which helped finance Mr Green’s £850m takeover of Arcadia in 2002, will receive the remainder of the payout.

支付这笔巨额股息之前的一周，格林先生旗下另一家零售集团BHS公布了全年业绩，当时他决定不给自己分红。这笔巨额股息将由集团的运营债务提供资金，而集团运营负债在8月底已从去年的2.658亿英镑飙升至13.5亿英镑。
The huge payout comes a week after Mr Green declined to pay himself a dividend following full-year results from BHS, the retail group he also owns. It will be financed from group operational debt which shot up from £265.8m last year to £1.35bn at the end August.

格林先生这笔横财的消息传出时，阿卡迪亚公布，集团扣除商誉前的运营利润增长了10%，达3.261亿英镑，销售额为17.7亿英镑。在至8月27日的一年里，集团同店销售增长1.3%。格林先生三年前收购了阿卡迪亚，使自己成为全英国最富有的私人老板。
News of the windfall came as Arcadia, which Mr Green bought three years ago to make him the UK’s wealthiest private businessman, reported a 10 per cent increase in operating profits before goodwill to £326.1m on sales of £1.77bn. Like-for-like sales rose 1.3 per cent in the year to August 27.

集团表示，英国商业零售市场状况仍“富于挑战，且竞争极其激烈”。集团同时披露，自8月底以来，营业额已比去年同期增长了3%。
The group said conditions on the UK high street remained “challenging and extremely competitive” as it revealed turnover since the end of August had risen 3 per cent compared to the same period a year ago.

格林先生在声明中表示：“这一业绩给了我们支付股息的信心，而且更重要的是，它让我们有信心保持高水平的业务投资。”
“This performance has given us the confidence to both pay the dividend and, more importantly, continue the high level of investment in the business,’’ Mr Green said in the statement.

格林先生去年试图收购玛莎百货(Marks and Spencer)未果。在他获得这笔新的巨额资金后，外界对其意图的疑问很可能越来越大。
Mr Green, who failed in his attempt to buy Marks and Spencer last year, is likely to face growing questions about his intentions following his latest windfall.

这位企业家已建立起一个零售业王国，囊括了英国零售市场上一些最著名的企业。去年格林先生对玛莎百货提出了91亿英镑的指示收购报价，但由于未能获得董事会支持，最后被迫放弃。
The entrepreneur has built a retail empire that includes some of the most familiar names on the UK high street. Last year he was forced to walk away from a bid for Marks and Spencer after failing to receive the backing of the board for his £9.1bn indicative offer.

译者/林昌余

债市走向格林斯潘看不懂的“谜团”
A riddle in a mystery in an enigma

债券市场理应是个令人畏惧的东西。一个有名的事例是，比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)曾因为债券市场可能的反应，改变了他的经济刺激计划。按理，市场中的“积极分子”会提防任何通胀威胁。
The bond market is supposed to be an intimidating creature. Bill Clinton famously changed his plans for an economic stimulus package because of the likely bond market reaction. The “vigilantes” in the market are supposedly alert to any inflationary threat.

这一回，债券市场与其说是只老虎，还不如说是只猫。尽管许多政府已陷入赤字，但它们仍能以有史以来的低收益率(无论按实际还是名义价值)借贷。企业借贷成本与政府债券成本间的息差也非常小。
This time round, the bond market has been more pussycat than tiger. Even though many governments have been slipping into deficit, they have been able to borrow at historically low yields, in real and nominal terms. Companies have been able to borrow at very narrow spreads over the cost of government debt.

此外，债券收益率也未表现出与短期利率通常具有的历史关联。自2004年夏以来，美联储(US Federal Reserve)多次提高借贷成本。正常情况下，债券收益率会相应上涨，可是，这次它们几乎没有任何变化。
Furthermore, bond yields have not displayed their usual historical relationship with short rates. The US Federal Reserve has repeatedly raised the cost of borrowing since the summer of 2004. Normally, bond yields would rise in response; instead, they have barely moved at all.

这给美联储出了一道难题。债券收益率是固定按揭利率的关键组成部分，与美国消费者密切相关。美联储所有货币紧缩措施的净效果，根本没有抬高按揭利率。难怪美国消费者一直在消费，房屋价格仍在一路攀升。
This has represented a problem for the US Federal Reserve. Bond yields are the key component of fixed mortgage rates, widely used by US consumers. So the net effect of all that Fed monetary tightening has not raised mortgage rates at all. Small wonder that the US consumer has kept spending and that house prices have continued to surge ahead.

今年，美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)将低水平的债券收益率称为一个“谜团”(conundrum)。很多投资者和策略师都会同意这一说法，他们当中许多人曾预测，美国债券收益率到2005年底将升至5%以上。
This year, Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, referred to the low level of bond yields as a “conundrum”. There are plenty of investors and strategists, many of whom forecast US bond yields would rise above 5 per cent by the end of 2005, who would agree.

对于债券市场的奇怪反应，有很多可能的解释。第一个就是债券投资者仍然很精明，他们之所以购买低收益率债券，是因为他们相信，要么经济增长会停滞一段时间，要么经济即将陷入衰退。平坦或反向的收益率曲线(短期利率高于长期利率)，传统上被视为衰退的前兆。
There are a number of potential explanations for the strange reaction of bond markets. The first is that bond investors are still being smart. They are buying bonds at low yields because they believe either that economic growth will be sluggish for some time or that a recession is on the way. A flat or inverted yield curve (when short rates are above long rates) has traditionally been seen as a harbinger of recession.

这个解释的问题在于，鲜有经济学家预测会出现这样的衰退，股票市场对此似乎也并不担心。这要求人们信任聪明的债券投资者和愚钝的股票投资者，这两群人往往为相同的机构工作。
The problem with this explanation is that few economists are forecasting such a recession and equity markets do not seem to be worrying about it. That requires one to believe in smart bond investors and dumb equity investors, both of whom are often working for the same organisations.

这一观点的某种变异形式称，债券市场根本没有发出有关经济增长的信号，它们只是反映了通胀。当今世界有亚洲的竞争，有瞄准通胀目标的各国央行，还有高新技术，不管增长前景如何，通胀率都将停留在低水平。因此，股票投资者大可放心，债券投资者可接受4%左右的收益率。
A subtle variant on this argument is that bond markets are not signalling anything about growth at all, they are making a statement about inflation. In a world of competition from Asia, central banks with inflation targets and new technology, inflation will stay low, regardless of the growth outlook. Hence equity investors can be relaxed and bond investors can live with yields of 4 per cent or so.

另一种解释是，债券收益率完全错了。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的大卫·迈尔斯(David Miles)估计，当时(9月份)一般水平的实际债券收益率，要求GDP年增长率一直保持在1.3%以下。而这种情况似乎不大可能。
The alternative explanation is that bond yields are simply wrong. David Miles of Morgan Stanley estimated that real bond yields at the then prevailing levels (in September) would require GDP growth to be permanently below 1.3 per cent a year. That does not seem likely.

债券收益率或许是被人为地保持在低水平。一种可能是全球储蓄过剩；过多储蓄资金在追逐过少的机会。储蓄的价格(债券收益率)因此降低。这种过度储蓄的“罪魁祸首”是亚洲人，特别是该地区的央行。
So perhaps bond yields are being held artificially low. One possibility is that there is a global savings surplus; too much savings is chasing too few opportunities. The price of saving (the bond yield) has thus fallen. The “culprits” for this excess savings are the Asians, particularly the region’s central banks.

它们循环利用各自国家的经常账户盈余，使之转换成美元证券，压低了收益率水平。
They have recycled their countries’ current account surpluses into dollar securities, holding yields down.

另一种可能是，人口结构使债券收益率维持在低水平。Longview Economics的克里斯·沃特林(Chris Watling)指出，2000年以来，G7国家25至44岁年龄段的绝对人数一直在减少。
Another possibility is that demographics are keeping bond yields low. Chris Watling of Longview Economics points out that, since 2000, the absolute numbers of 25-44 year olds in the G7 countries has been shrinking.

“这一年龄组展现最快的消费增长率，拥有多数首次购房者，并借贷大部分发给家庭的贷款。”
“This age group exhibits the fastest growth rates of consumption, constitutes most of the first-time buyers of housing and borrows most of the money which is lent to households in an economy.

“因此，25至44岁年龄组的不断缩小，降低了需求的自然增长率。”
“A shrinking 25-44 age group therefore lowers natural growth rates of demand.”

25至44岁年龄组的缩小必定会加快，尤其是在欧洲与日本。沃特林认为，消费增长将进一步放缓，而实际利率将在相当长一段时间里保持在低水平。
The 25-44 age group is set to shrink even faster, particularly in European and Japan. In Watling’s view, consumption growth should slow further and real interest rates should trend at low levels for a considerable period.

另一派人谴责美联储将宽松货币政策维持过久。
Another school of thought blames the Fed for running a cheap money policy for far too long.

这种政策鼓励了各个领域的投机行为，拉高了房价、股价和债券价格。
That policy has encouraged speculation across the board, pushing up prices of property, equities and bonds.

由于许多亚洲国家(正式或非正式地)将它们的货币与美元挂钩，并保持低利率，所以美联储有着全球影响力。
The Fed has had a global effect since so many Asian countries have (formally or informally) linked their currencies to the dollar, keeping their interest rates low.

日本央行向经济注入资金，可能也使全球的债券收益率保持在低水平。在本土面对零利率的日本投资者，也一直在海外追逐收益。
The Japanese central bank, by pumping money into the economy, may also have kept global bond yields down; Japanese private investors, faced with zero interest rates at home, have been chasing yield abroad.

事实会证明，上述解释中总有一个是正确的。今年有两次，强劲的经济数据开始推动债券收益率上升，让看跌债券的人宣布胜利。但每次到最后，债券收益率都会在疲弱经济数据或高油价的影响下回跌。
Events should prove one or other of these explanations to be correct. On a couple of occasions this year, strong economic data have started to push bond yields higher, allowing the bond bears to claim victory. But each time, the data has come to an end in the face of weaker economic data or the perceived impact of high oil prices.

假若美国房地产市场崩溃，或者高油价引发西方经济衰退，这些将证明债券市场终究是正确的。
A collapsing housing market in the US, or an oil-induced recession in the west, would prove that bond markets have been right all along.

又或者，如果中国升值人民币，减小亚洲各央行持有美元证券的需求，也可能令债券收益率大幅上升。
Alternatively, a Chinese currency revaluation, by reducing the need for Asian central banks to hold dollar securities, might send bond yields sharply higher.

迄今为止，上述理论没有一个被令人信服地证明正确，令许多聪明的投资者陷入困境。
As yet, none of the theories has been decisively proved correct. A lot of smart investors have been caught out as a consequence.

今后12个月，这些投资者中有许多将再次被证明错了。
Many of them will be proved wrong again over the next 12 months.

译者/李功文

与媒体打交道
A small-business shorthand for successful press coverage

最近，一位商业杂志撰稿人给我打来电话，说到所有记者都不喜欢公关专业人士，让我谈谈对此的看法。我觉得自己不够资格：我并不厌恶搞公共关系的人。他们向媒体卖消息，而不是向消费者或企业卖产品或卖服务，但他们依然是销售人员。而销售是商业的基本行为，它得到的欢呼声应该更热烈些。
A writer from a business magazine called me recently for my comments on the hatred all journalists harbour towards PR professionals. I felt horribly inadequate. I do not hate PRs. They sell messages to the media rather than products or services to consumers or companies, but they are still salespeople. And sales is the fundamental activity of business. It deserves a louder hurrah than it gets.

许多记者之所以不相信公关人士，是因为在记者看来，唯一象样的报道是主人公不愿公之于众的内容。这让那些喜欢曝光的企业老板感到难办，因为按照记者的逻辑，急于沟通是无话可说的症状。
The distrust many journalists feel towards PRs reflects their belief that the only decent story is one the protagonist does not want them to tell. That complicates the job of publicity-hungry business owners, by dictating that a keenness to communicate is interpreted as a symptom of having nothing to say.

下面，我给大家提供一些贴士。与那些金融界媒体顾问不同，我不会为此收取巨额费用。也许，我会因为泄露业内诀窍而被“皇家小企业撰稿人协会”除名。不过，这是我第99篇专栏，我感到分外胆大。
To make things easier, here are some tips, offered without the eye-watering fee a financial spin doctor would charge. I may be blackballed from the Royal Society of Small Business Scribblers for disclosing trade secrets. But this is my 99th column and that makes a man feel reckless.

如果上市公司要让股东对公司有个好印象，公司老板就不可避免地要与媒体打交道。在这方面，私有公司可以轻松些。你可以随时撩开面纱，对外公布公司的拓展，交易，或者产品。如果生意不好，你可以不理记者的电话。只要没有盈利警告或股价暴跌这样的事实为依据，批评性的报道本身难以立足。
Public company bosses cannot avoid talking to the press if they want to project a positive image to their shareholders. Private entrepreneurs have it easier. You can pop out of purdah to publicise expansion, a deal, or a product whenever you like. If business is going poorly, you can simply ignore calls from reporters. Without such underpinnings as profits warnings or tumbling shares, critical stories are hard to stand up.

有些私有公司的老板故意避开媒体，也没见什么恶果。科尼什(Cornish)家族就是其中一例，他们在2003年以8.6亿美元把旗下的包装公司Linpac出售给他人。而其它一些私有公司的老板，如理查德·布兰森爵士(Sir Richard Branson)，已对媒体曝光形成了不那么得体的嗜好，并将其作为公司商业战略的核心组成部分。这部分反映了个性。但同样重要的是，Linpac公司的客户是其它公司，其销售额不会像布兰森的维珍(Virgin)这种消费者集团那样得益于大众媒体的曝光。另外，许多初出茅庐的企业家相信，新闻报道有助于初创企业吸引投资者，于是他们把新闻剪报附在商业计划里。
Some private business owners, such as the Cornish family who sold their packaging business Linpac for £860m in 2003, eschew media contact without ill-effect. Others, such as Sir Richard Branson, have made a quite unseemly appetite for coverage central to their commercial strategy. Partly this reflects personalities. Equally, the sales of a company such as Linpac, whose customers are other businesses, benefit less from mass media exposure than a consumer group such as Virgin. Many fledgling entrepreneurs meanwhile believe press coverage will validate their start-ups with potential investors, and accordingly attach their cuttings to their business plans.

按照公关公司的说法，与广告相比，公关能以更高效率为企业赢得公众的尊敬。他们称，内容报道花费更低，而且比广告文案更能赢得信任。但这番说辞没有提到公关的一大弱点，即不可预见性。就在前不久，我以某家公司的新闻发布为依据撰写了一篇简短的新闻。第二天，该公司的总经理给我打来电话。他说：“非常感谢你刊载我公司的新闻稿，但下次请勿改动其中的文字。”这就是我们记者的问题：我们会改动原文。其结果是，如果一篇新闻发布的原名为“Whizzco公司拟打入快速发展的数据库市场”，经过记者一改，杂志上的标题成了“Whizzco公司境况不佳，仓皇退出外围设备市场”。
The spiel of PR company rainmakers is that PR delivers public esteem more efficiently than advertisements. They claim editorial coverage is cheaper to obtain and is believed more whole-heartedly than advertising copy. The unemphasised downside is unpredictability. A while ago I wrote a short report based on a company press release. The next day the managing director called me. “Thanks for printing our release,” he said, “but please don’t change the words next time”. That is the problem with us journalists. We change the words. As a result, a communiqué innocently titled “Whizzco Targets Fast-Growing Database Market” can be transmuted into a magazine article headlined “Struggling Whizzco Quits Peripherals Market in Disarray”.

广义上讲，有两类商业公关顾问。一种属于资深级的，很能打动人心，但浑身散发着令人不安的油滑气息。他的职责包括给记者打电话，神秘兮兮地告诉他们，与他的客户存在利害冲突的某公司老板在1979年被免去牧师资格。另一种公关的资历稍浅，精力充沛，干劲十足，但注意力不够集中。如果是一名女性，她是那种不错的女孩，本来希望去苏富比拍卖行(Sotheby’s)工作。如果是一名男性，他是那种大户人家的次子，要在以前，早就把他送去殖民地，在那里发财，或者染上怪病。
Broadly, there are two kinds of financial PR consultant. One type is senior and smoothly charming, yet emits disturbing whiffs of brimstone. His duties include phoning journalists to mention, entre nous, that a company boss whose interests conflict with his client’s was defrocked as a priest in 1979. The other type is junior and has the bouncy, unfocused eagerness of a red setter puppy. If female, she is a nice girl who had rather hoped to work for Sotheby’s. If male, he is a younger son of a good family that in times past would have sent him to the colonies to make his fortune or contract an exotic disease.

商业记者较难归类。公平地讲，我们中几乎无人是在实现儿时的梦想。如果你在宴会上告诉某人你是个记者，你会引起他人的兴趣。但如果你接着告诉人家你是一名商业记者，那么之前的兴趣就会即刻消失。在多数人看来，商业记者听起来和品性不端的会计师差不多。我们成为商业记者的道路不尽相同。以我为例，当年在英格兰Blackpool市的Tower Ballroom舞厅，如果我能通过面试，成功演奏Mighty Wurlitzer管风琴，现在我就不会在此和你说话了。
Business writers are harder to categorise. It is fair to say that few of us are realising a childhood dream. Tell someone at a dinner party you are a journalist and you provoke flickers of interest. You can quickly quench these by explaining you are a business journalist. To most people that just sounds like a louche accountant. We arrive at our profession by multiple routes. I, for example, would not be addressing you now had I passed the audition to play the Mighty Wurlitzer twice nightly in the Tower Ballroom, Blackpool.

商业记者的共同点，就是要从纷繁混乱的商业生活中，提炼出引人入胜的报道。如果企业能向采访者提供现成的故事，而非一大堆事实、数据和轶事，那就更有可能看到自己希望的报道。好的地方是，企业家成功故事是一种发展较为成熟的体裁。
What unites business journalists is the need to piece together compelling stories from the chaos of commercial life. You are more likely to get the write-up you want if you can present interviewers with a ready-made narrative rather than a jumble of facts, figures and anecdotes. The entrepreneurial success story is, helpfully, a well-developed genre.

理想情况下，企业家应该出身高贵，享有特权或者出身贫寒。如果你有皇室朋友，还擅长打马球，那么你在许多出版物上占的专栏空间就牢不可破。假如你被慈爱但不识字的吉普赛人带大，曾经住在漏风的大篷车里，你可以把这种经历变成一件好事。
Ideally you should either come from a background of lofty privilege or grinding poverty. Royal friends and polo-playing skill guarantee you column inches in many publications. You can make as good a thing of being raised by loving but illiterate Traveller folk in a leaky caravan.

如果你的背景平凡得令人汗颜，那也没什么关系。你还是可以向记者提供企业家成功故事中不可缺少的戏剧性素材。你可以解释一下，你是如何在洗澡时突然想到刻字的助听器还有许多市场潜力可挖。如果你的公司曾遭受过一次毁灭性的打击，但你的勇气让公司度过了难关，那么这个情节也很不错，能推动故事的发展。如果你的公司曾濒临破产，但终于得到一份订单或注资，让公司柳暗花明，这样的细节要放在高潮部分。以此为基础，记者就能轻而易举地叙述你现在的成功和主导国际市场的未来计划。
If your background is shamingly ordinary, never mind. You can still provide reporters with that sine qua non of the entrepreneur’s yarn, the eureka moment. Explain how the revelation of vast untapped demand for monogrammed hearing aids hit you in the bath. A crushing setback, pluckily overcome, is a good plot motif to carry the yarn forward. The order or capital injection that saved your business should materialise, like the Ninth Cavalry, at the last gasp. From there it is an easy canter into recounting your current success and plans for future world domination.

归根结底，和记者打交道是一种商业往来，一种无现金的交易。你为了得到媒体曝光而向记者提供信息，让记者写成一篇好故事。批评者称，企业的公关经费是对媒体的隐性补贴，理由是企业向记者“喂”资料，损害了记者的客观性。我的感觉是，公关只是一个平衡块，平衡媒体由商业利益驱动的对负面新闻的贪欲。结果就是恰到好处的新闻报道，即使其初衷有问题。
Dealing with a journalist is ultimately just another business transaction, a kind of cashless trading. You pay for exposure by providing information that can be turned into good copy. Critics say corporate PR spending represents a concealed subsidy to the media, that business compromises the objectivity of journalists by spoon-feeding them material. My hunch is that PR is merely a counterweight to the media’s strong, commercially driven appetite for bad news. The result would be coverage with the right balance, if for the wrong reasons.

美国可能对免签证国家重提签证要求 Few countries set to meet US deadline for issuing new high-tech passports


预计只有一小部分国家能在美国规定的最后期限前向本国公民发放高科技护照，从而再度引起人们担心，自今年10月起，数百万前往美国的访问者将需要签证才能入境。
Only a handful of nations are expected to meet a US deadline for issuing high-tech passports, raising fresh concerns that millions more visitors to the US will need visas to enter the country from October.

目前有27个国家享有美国的免签证待遇，但如果它们不能在10月26日前提供生物辨识护照，那么美国将对这些国家的旅游者提出签证要求。
The US will require visas for travellers from 27 currently visa-exempt countries if they do not start producing the new biometric passports by October 26.

美国提议的这种生物辨识护照包括一张植入芯片的数码照片。在2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击后，美国意图通过这一措施来加强边界控制。
The biometric passports, which include a digital photograph embedded on a chip, were proposed by the US in a bid to improve border controls in the wake of the September 11 2001 terror attacks.

在亚洲，日本已明确表态，它在一年内将无法准备好这种护照。新加坡、澳大利亚、新西兰和文莱等国也被要求提供这种高科技护照。在欧洲，英国和法国肯定要错过最后期限，在免签证入境待遇方面将面临尴尬的阻碍。
In Asia, Japan has already made clear it will not be ready with the passports for a year. Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and Brunei are also required to introduce the high-tech passports. In Europe, the UK and France are set to miss the deadline and will face an embarrassing block on visa-free access.

欧盟委员会的资料显示，仅有比利时、德国、奥地利、芬兰、瑞典和卢森堡能于10月起开始提供生物辨识护照。
According to the European Commission only Belgium, Germany, Austria, Finland, Sweden and Luxembourg will be in a position to start issuing the biometric passports from October.

在27个免签证国家中，大部分国家未能如期制作出高科技护照，这可能会给旅游业造成困难，并且可能意味着美国将失去数百万美元的旅游收入。此前，已有好几个国家发出警告，表示他们难以如期生产出高科技护照。这些国家去年曾敦促美国国会将最后期限延长两年，后者同意将期限延长一年。
The failure of the majority of the 27 visa-exempt countries to produce high-tech passports by the deadline could cause difficulties for the travel industry and might mean that the US loses millions of dollars in tourism spending. Several countries have warned of the difficulties they face in producing the high-tech passports on time. Last year they urged the US Congress to extend the deadline by two years. It agreed to a one year extension.

包括使用数码照片的这种科技将能帮助当局查证旅行者的身份。做法是先拍下到境旅行者的照片，然后再与加密储存在芯片上的细节进行比对。
The technology, including the digital photograph, will help authorities verify a traveller's identity. They will compare an image taken of the traveller on arrival to details encrypted on the chip.

但外界对这项技术的可靠性以及信息存储方式存在忧虑。此外，国际社会也没有就安全特性达成共同标准，现在只有一部分护照上有指纹信息。
But there are fears about the reliability of the technology and how the information will be stored. In addition, the international community has not agreed a common standard on security features, with only some passports featuring fingerprints.

根据美国国务院的信息，今年美国将开始向该国公民发放新的高科技护照，但全面推广要到2006年年底才有可能展开。
The US will start issuing the new high-tech passports to its citizens this year but full roll-out is unlikely until the end of 2006, according to the State Department.

日本将在2008年终止对华援助 Japan says to end development aid to China


日本宣布，它已与中国达成协议，从2008年起终止提供新的软贷款。日本表示，到2008年，中国将不再需要日本经济援助。
Japan said it had reached agreement to cease new soft-yen loans to China from 2008, by which time it said Beijing would no longer require Japanese financial assistance.

日本决定在2008年北京主办奥运会时终止援助，这一做法具有象征意义，表明中日双方都承认，中国在经济上已经成熟。日本对华援助的主要形式是软贷款。
The decision to stop Japanese aid in 2008, the year Beijing hosts the Olympic Games, will be a symbolic acknowledgment by both sides that China has come of age economically. The bulk of Japanese aid comes in the form of soft loans.

日本外务省官员千叶明(Akira Chiba)说：“历史上，日本以及韩国都在举办奥运会时结束从其它国家借贷。届时中国应该有能力管理好自己的经济。”
Akira Chiba, foreign ministry official, said: “In history, Japan and then South Korea graduated from borrowing from other countries at the time they hosted the Olympic Games. China should be able to manage its own economy by then.”

在北京，中国外交部在一份声明中表示，希望双方能“妥善”处理日本对华援助问题，但声明中没有提及日本终止对华援助的时间表。长期以来，该项目一直被视为日本对侵华战争的一种补偿。
In Beijing, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement it hoped the two sides could solve the issue “in a proper way” without mentioning any timetable for the end of the programme, long considered a form of reparations for Japan’s wartime aggression against China.

日本终止对华援助的决定，是在两国关系日趋紧张的背景下作出的。随着中国的崛起成为一个经济和政治强国，双方一直在试探对方在一系列领域的决心，包括能源外交和边界争端。
The decision to stop aid comes against the background of rising tension between the two nations. As China emerges as an economic and political force, the two sides have been testing each other's resolve in a series of arenas, including energy diplomacy and boundary disputes.

在民意测验中，日本公众也经常对继续为中国提供资金表示不满，因为中国人普遍对日本有敌意，而且中国抢在日本之前把宇航员送上太空。
The Japanese public also regularly voices its displeasure in opinion polls at continuing to bankroll China when its people are generally hostile to Japan and its astronauts are able to beat their Japanese counterparts into space.

中国问题专家千叶先生表示，逐步终止对华软贷款存在很好的理由，尽管中国的人均国内生产总值还远未达到5000美元，即判定软贷款接受资格的通常标准。
Mr Chiba, a China expert, said there were sound reasons for tailing off soft loans to Beijing, even though it was still far from reaching a gross domestic product per capita of $5,000, the normal cut-off point for soft loan recipients.

“中国目前的财政状况非常有利，因为它可以从海外吸引所需的全部资本，”他说。“人们乐意将资金投入中国，但非洲就不一样了。我们确定中国自己能行，”他说。
“China is in a very favourable fiscal position because it can attract as much foreign capital as it needs,' he said. 'People are willing to pour money into China, but that's not the same for Africa. We decided that China can do it on its own,” he said.

北京的人民大学国际关系专家时殷弘表示，只要与中国政府经过密切磋商，中国就没有理由抱怨贷款计划的终止。
Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Renmin University in Beijing, said China would have no cause for complaint about the end of the loan program, as long as it was done in close consultation with the Beijing government.

“但一些普通民众将把此事当作日本对中国不善的另一例证，”他说。
“But some people in the street will take this as another example of Japan's bad behaviour towards China,” he said.

中美航运猛增 堵塞美国港口 Shipping bottleneck strains US importers


运输业高管和分析师警告说，美国进口商可以预期供应瓶颈今年将再次出现，且供应链成本上升，因为西海岸各港口非常堵塞。
US importers can expect another year of supply bottlenecks and rising supply-chain costs because of congestion in west coast ports, transport industry executives and analysts have warned.

由于对华贸易迅猛增长，目前洛杉矶港和长滩港吃紧，这两个港口总共接收近80%至美国西部的物流。代表西海岸各港口的太平洋海事协会(Pacific Maritime Association)预计，今年进口量将平均再增长14%，增幅与去年持平。
Surging trade with China is increasing the strain on Los Angeles and Long Beach, which together receive nearly 80 per cent of traffic to the western US. The Pacific Maritime Association, which represents west coast ports, predicts import volumes will increase by a further 14 per cent on average this year the same rate as last year.

去年，目的地为加州的集装箱货轮必须在海上等待数日，才能等到空余泊位，这拖延了向零售商交货的时间，并推高了承运商和货主的成本。
Last year container ships bound for California had to wait offshore for several days before a berth became free, delaying deliveries to retailers and pushing up costs for carriers and shippers.

高管和分析师警告说，这些港口工会势力强大、工时限制严格且技术过时，要想避免再次出现作业中断，必须增加投资并提高劳动生产率。
The ports, with their powerful labour unions, limited working hours and outdated technology, must increase investment and productivity if further disruption is to be averted, executives and analysts warned.

“我们去年在美国遇到的堵塞情况今年可能要重演，”新加坡远洋货运公司“海皇轮船”(Neptune Orient Lines)的首席执行官林得恩(David Lim)本周在跨太平洋航运会议上对与会者说，“行业、政府和其它相关各方之间有必要加强协调，以确保美国港口急需的投资不再被进一步耽误。”
“The congestion we faced [in the US] last year is likely to be repeated this year,” David Lim, chief executive of Neptune Orient Lines, a Singapore-based ocean freight carrier, told a conference on trans-Pacific shipping this week. “There is a need for closer co-ordination between industry, government and other interested parties to make sure much-needed investment [in US ports] is not further delayed.”

运动服饰品牌耐克(Nike)的物流总监约翰•伊斯贝尔(John Isbell)表示，如果堵塞现象继续存在，取道苏伊士运河、然后横跨大西洋运送亚洲制造的货物或许是个可行的替代办法。
If congestion persists, routing Asian-made goods through the Suez Canal and across the Atlantic might become a viable alternative, said John Isbell, director of logistics for Nike, the sports clothing brand.

欧洲各地的港口也一直在竭力增加港口吞吐量，分析师预计，西海岸出现任何延误，都将对世界各地的海运进度和运费产生连锁反应。
Ports across Europe have also struggled to increase capacity, and analysts expect any delays on the west coast to have knock-on effects for shipping schedules and tonnage rates around the world.

海运商一直在试图避开西海岸的堵塞状况，方法是重新安排货船航线，经巴拿马运河到达萨凡纳和纽约等美国东海岸港口。但这正使巴拿马运河容量逼近饱和，并使运费急剧上涨。
Shippers have sought to bypass west coast congestion by redirecting cargo through the Panama Canal to east coast ports, such as Savannah and New York. But this is pushing the canal towards full capacity and forcing sharp increases in rates.

墨西哥的各个港口以及西雅图、温哥华等几个偏北的西海岸港口也已吸纳了一些过剩货物，但分析师表示，这些港口吞吐量还不够大，不足以解决这场危机。
Mexican ports and more northerly west coast terminals, such as Seattle and Vancouver, have also absorbed some overspill but analysts said they were not big enough to solve the crisis.

译者/李裕

hehe~
Thanks, I'm working hard on my preparation for the qualification examination to the postgraduate.
welcome to my section~~

long time no see u , rainlakes .

good luck to u 。

中国中兴通讯与法国阿尔卡特结盟 ZTE seals deal with Alcatel


领先的中国电信设备制造商中兴通讯(ZTE)敲定了它和法国阿尔卡特公司(Alcatel)在CDMA移动通信网领域的联盟，同时在欧洲推出了新款高级移动手机，表明它打入新市场和新产品领域的决心。
ZTE, a leading Chinese telecoms equipment manufacturer, has signalled its determination to build a presence in new markets and products by sealing an alliance for CDMA mobile phone networks with Alcatel of France and launching new advanced mobile phones in Europe.

中兴通讯负责西欧各市场的副总裁林程 (Lin Cheng，音译)表示，根据与阿尔卡特的联盟协议，中兴通讯将向阿尔卡特提供适用于CDMA网络的无线接入设备。CDMA是美国支持的移动通信标准。
Under the alliance with Alcatel, ZTE will provide the French company with wireless access equipment for networks using the US-favoured CDMA standard, said Lin Cheng, ZTE vice-president for western European markets.

与阿尔卡特的协定，体现了中兴通讯和其竞争对手华为技术(Huawei Technologies)的努力，它们力求运用与国际公司的合作关系，作为进入外国市场的捷径。华为技术是规模比中兴通讯更大的中国企业。
The pact with Alcatel reflects efforts by ZTE and its larger Chinese rival Huawei Technologies to use partnerships with international companies as a way of easing their entry into foreign markets.

林先生表示，中兴通讯随时准备在未来扩大与阿尔卡特的联合，并可能在明年宣布关于其它产品的新合作协议。
ZTE was open to widening the alliance with Alcatel in the future and could announce other new partnership deals related to other products over the next year, Mr Lin said.

与华为相比，此前中兴通讯在海外市场更为谨慎，但现在该公司决心建立其全球领导地位。最近公司在香港上市，融资3.98亿美元。它表示，计划将大部分资金用于国际扩张。
ZTE, which had previously been more cautious overseas than Huawei, is now determined to establish a leading global presence and has said that it plans to spend much of the proceeds of its recent US$398m-equivalent listing in Hong Kong to fund international expansion.

中兴通讯还表示，它希望到2006年将其国外销售比例从2004年上半年的13％提高到40％。
The company has also said that it wants to raise the proportion of its sales generated abroad to 40 per cent by 2006 from 13 per cent in the first half of 2004.

对阿尔卡特而言，与中兴通讯联盟将填补它向顾客提供的CDMA网络设备产品缺口，帮助它拓宽移动网络产品的范围。
For Alcatel, the alliance will fill a gap in the CDMA network equipment it can offer customers, helping it to expand its portfolio of mobile network products.

中兴通讯本周也向欧洲市场推出两款3G手机，这两款产品采用WCDMA 3G手机标准，欧洲移动网运营商倾向于采用这一标准。
ZTE also this week launched two 3G mobile phone handsets for the European market that use the WCDMA 3G mobile phone standard most favoured by operators in the region.

林先生表示，中兴通讯将在欧洲加强推广它的3G技术，而且公司对该市场的扩展计划“非常雄心勃勃”。
Mr Lin said ZTE would step up promotion of its 3G technology in Europe and was “very ambitious” in its plans for the market.

the 4th post

非常不错，楼主辛苦了．上面有从Economist选出来的文章吗？

华盛顿警告：网络电话“不安全” US warns on risk of net-based telephony Security alert could herald rethink on new system


美国政府已对互联网电话服务的安全风险发出强烈警告。网上电话是发展最快的通信技术之一。
The US government has issued a strong warning about the security risks associated with internet-based telephony, one of the fastest-growing communications technologies.

互联网电话技术被称作“语音IP”(Voip)。该技术使用现有数据网络，有望实现较低成本和更大的灵活性。但美国标准与技术研究院(NIST)发布的一份报告对语音IP的“固有脆弱性”提出了警告。美国标准与技术研究院负责为美国政府机构制定技术指引。
Internet-based telephony known as voice over internet protocol, or Voip promises lower costs and greater flexibility by using existing data networks. But a report by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, which develops technology guidelines for US government agencies, warns of the “inherent vulnerabilities” of Voip.

“预期语音IP系统会比传统电话系统更易受攻击，部分是因为语音IP系统同数据网络相连，具有额外的安全弱点和攻击通道。”
“Voip systems can be expected to be more vulnerable than conventional telephone systems, in part because they are tied in to the data network, resulting in additional security weaknesses and avenues of attack.”

来自该研究院的警告可能促使一些公司、机构和消费者重新评价采用语音IP电话的计划。
The warning from the institute is likely to prompt some companies, agencies and consumers to reassess plans for adopting the technology.

据市场研究集团加特纳(Gartner)称，今年美国公司和公共部门机构在语音IP系统方面的支出将从2004年的6.86亿美元增至9.03亿美元。在混合系统上的投资将从15亿美元增至20亿美元。混合系统能同时处理语音IP和传统通话。
According to Gartner, the market research group, spending by US companies and public-sector organisations on Voip systems will grow to $903m this year, up from $686m in 2004. Investment in hybrid systems, which handle Voip and traditional calls, will grow from $1.5bn to $2bn.

加特纳预计，到2007年，97%的北美新装电话系统将采用语音IP或混合系统。美国电信业协会(Telecommunication Industry Association)预测，到2008年，将有2600万用户使用语音IP电话服务。
By 2007 Gartner expects 97 per cent of new phone systems installed in North America to be Voip or hybrids. The Telecommunication Industry Association predicts that 26m users will have Voip by 2008.

在该技术得到普及的同时，政府担心管理者未充分理解它的安全影响。
While the technology proliferates, the government is concerned managers do not fully understand security implications.

美国标准与技术研究院本周在报告中表示，产生混乱的主要原因之一，“是人们(自然地)假定，由于数字化的语音正像其它数据一样以分组传送，现存的网络构架和工具可以得到利用而无需改变”。研究院警告说，“语音IP电话使现存网络技术增加了大量复杂因素，而由于安全方面的各项考虑，这些问题被放大了。”
In its report this week Nist says a main source of confusion “is the (natural) assumption that, because digitised voice travels in packets just like other data, existing network architectures and tools can be used without change”. It warns that “Voip adds a number of complications to existing network technology and these problems are magnified by security considerations.”

用于保护数据网络的防火墙和入侵侦测系统延缓了数据在网络上的传播，因而经常干扰语音电话。这导致电话中断或脱线。此外，防火墙无法防御内部黑客。
Firewalls and intrusion detection systems used to protect data networks often interfere with voice calls by delaying information as it travels across the network. This leads to calls breaking up or being dropped. In addition, firewalls are no defence against internal hackers.

除非将通话加密，否则只要有人能亲身接近一个机构的局域网，他就可以安上监听设备以监听通话内容。虽然这对传统电话网络在理论上也有可能，但交换设备更容易保护。
Unless calls are encrypted, anyone with physical access to an organisation's local area network can attach monitoring equipment and tap into calls. While this is in theory possible with traditional telephone networks, access to switching equipment is easier to control.

译者/李裕

不错也！！！

美元下跌未必能削减美国赤字 Don’t rely on the dollar to reduce the deficit


金融市场现在有一种共识：美元将长期走低，以减少美国的巨额经常账户赤字。


There is now a consensus in the financial markets that the US dollar is headed for a prolonged slump in order to reduce America's large current account deficit.



美元下跌可通过两种方式来减少外部赤字。它能鼓励出口上扬或进口替代。但专家们未能注意到的问题是：美国并不具备足够的制造能力来消除外部赤字。


There are two ways the falling dollar can reduce the external deficit. It can encourage an upsurge of exports or import substitution. What pundits have not noticed is that the US does not have adequate manufacturing capacity to eliminate the external deficit.



美国经济的制造业年产出约有1.5万亿美元，产能利用率近79%。美国的经常账户赤字相当于其制造业产出的40%。如果美国要通过改善商品贸易账户来降低1500亿美元的外部赤字，那它的制造业产能利用率就将提高7%，达到86%。如果美国想通过出口激增或大规模进口替代来消灭赤字，那么制造业产能利用率就将超过100%。


The US economy produces about $1,500bn per annum of output in its manufacturing industry and has a capacity utilisation rate of nearly 79 per cent. The current account deficit is equal to 40 per cent of American manufacturing output. If the US were to reduce the external deficit by $150bn through an improvement in the merchandise trade account for goods, the manufacturing capacity utilisation rate would increase by 7 per cent to 86 per cent. If the US were to seek to eliminate the deficit entirely through a boom in exports or massive import substitution, the utilisation rate would exceed 100 per cent.



由于美联储(Fed)将高于85%以上的产能利用率视为会引起通胀，因此若贸易账户的变化导致产能利用率如此大幅提高，那美国就会采取紧缩的货币政策，这点几乎毫无疑问。在这种情况下，美国最终降低赤字的途径可能是国内衰退，而不是出口激增。


As the Federal Reserve regards a rate above 85 per cent as inflationary, there is little doubt that it would tighten monetary policy if changes in the trade account were to produce such a big swing in the utilisation rate. In this scenario, the US might ultimately reduce the deficit through a domestic recession, not an export boom.



美国控制外部赤字的产能不足，因为其制造业资本存量的相对价值数年来不断下降。2003年，这一存量相当于固定资产总额的7.3%，而1985年为8.4%。美国制造业私营部门就业比例也已下降，从1985年初的22.4%降至近期的13%。2001年衰退后的资本支出复苏是现代商业周期史上最弱的一次。2002年年中至2003年，资本支出仅增长5%，而前5次经济扩张期首年的平均增长率是15%。在本次复苏的初期，各家公司似乎态度谨慎，原因在于2001至2002年的公司丑闻，以及萨班斯-奥克斯利法案(Sarbanes-Oxley)的出台。


The US has inadequate capacity to control the external deficit because its manufacturing capital stock has been declining in relative terms for several years. In 2003, this stock was equal to 7.3 per cent of total fixed assets, compared with 8.4 per cent in 1985. The share of US private employment in manufacturing has also shrunk from 22.4 per cent in early 1985 to 13 per cent recently. The recovery in capital spending after the 2001 recession was the most subdued in modern business cycle history. Between mid-2002 and 2003, capital spending increased by only 5 per cent compared with an average gain of 15 per cent during the first year of the five previous business expansions. It appears that companies were cautious early in the current recovery because of the corporate scandals of 2001-02 and the Sarbanes-Oxley legislation.



企业现正准备提高资本支出。企业赢利能力自2002年来已大幅回升，且资产负债表十分充实。2004年第一季度，现金流超出资本支出，而2000年现金流低于资本支出3000亿美元。国会近期也已颁布法律，允许美国公司将国外利润返回国内时享受有利的税收条件。遣返利润适用的税率将从35%降至5.25%，为期1年。许多分析师认为，美国公司2000年以来积累了6690亿美元国外利润，它们可能将其中多达1500亿至2000亿美元带回国内。这可能为国内资本支出激增提供资金，最终有助于降低外部赤字。


Companies are now prepared to bolster capital spending. There has been a dramatic recovery in corporate profitability since 2002 and the US corporate sector has a highly liquid balance sheet. Cash flow exceeded capital spending in the first quarter of 2004, compared with a $300bn deficit in 2000. Congress has also recently enacted legislation to allow US companies to repatriate foreign profits on favourable tax terms. The tax rate on repatriated profits is to be reduced from 35 per cent to 5.25 per cent for one year. Many analysts think American companies might bring home as much as $150bn-$200bn of the $669bn of foreign profits they have accumulated since 2000. This could help fund the domestic capital spending boom needed to reduce the external deficit.



目前另一项公司税收大变动不利于资本支出。2003年国会推行法案，规定购买新资本货物可免税50%，但该优惠已于2004年12月31日失效。乔治•W•布什(George W. Bush)总统已任命一个委员会拟定新的税收改革措施。如果该委员会将重点放在制造业产能上，则有可能采用英国在上世纪60和70年代的做法，恢复资本货物税收减免，甚至将免税率增至100%。


The other big corporate tax change now occurring will be negative for capital spending. In 2003, Congress introduced a 50 per cent tax allowance for purchases of new capital goods, but it expired on December 31 2004. President George W. Bush has appointed a commission to propose new tax reforms. If the commission focuses on manufacturing capacity, it could decide to restore tax allowances for capital goods or even expand them to 100 per cent, as Britain did during the 1960s and 1970s.



美国振兴制造业的另一个方法是促进外国直接投资。1999至2000年间，在经历了一波收购潮后，外国直接投资跳升到2500亿至3000亿美元，随后在2002年间回落至仅500亿美元，而去年勉强达到300亿美元。外国企业利用在美国的制造厂满足美国国内需求，并将产品出口返销至本国。公司内贸易占美国出口的33%，进口的40%。弱势美元应能增加国际公司投资美国的吸引力。


The other way for the US to revitalise manufacturing is to promote foreign direct investment. After a wave of takeover bids, FDI shot up to $250bn-$300bn during 1999 and 2000 before slumping back to only $50bn during 2002 and barely $30bn last year. Foreign companies use their American manufacturing plants to satisfy both domestic demand and export back to their home countries. Intra-corporate trade accounts for 33 per cent of US exports and 40 per cent of imports. The cheap dollar should enhance the attractiveness of American investment for international companies.



美元下跌只是美国平衡国际收支过程的第一步。还必须大幅度重新调配资源，把资源从国内消费调拨到可贸易产品制造领域。一个大问题是，美国是否有能力通过逐步振兴其制造业，或者戏剧性地通过一场国内消费衰退来降低外部赤字。但美国经济的基本走向很明显。要降低庞大的经常账户赤字，就必须大幅提高其可贸易产品行业的产出。


The decline of the dollar is only the first step in the process of adjusting America's balance of payments. There will also have to be a significant reallocation of resources from domestic consumption to tradeable goods manufacturing. The great question is whether the US will be able to reduce the deficit through a gradual manufacturing revival or, dramatically, through a domestic spending recession. But the basic direction of the US economy is clear. There will have to be a significant expansion of output in tradeable goods industries to reduce the large current account deficit.



作者是一位驻芝加哥经济学家。


The writer is a Chicago-based economist

雷富礼：平静的宝洁再造者 The calm reinventor


2000年，接任宝洁(Procter Gamble)首席执行官2天后，雷富礼(AG Lafley)未经通报便走入宝洁“校友会”在芝加哥举行的一个宴会，这个“校友会”由这家消费品巨擘的诸位前高管组成。雷富礼先生有着一头短而直的银灰色头发，并有一种沉静的领袖气质，他的入场引起了不小的骚动。
Two days after taking over as Procter Gamble's chief executive in 2000, A. G. Lafley walked unannounced into a Chicago dinner party of P&G's "alumni" - former executives of the consumer goods giant. With his spiky, silver-grey hair and quiet charisma, Mr Lafley's arrival caused quite a stir.

在场人士有理由感到惊讶。宝洁从顶级大学招募高材生，而且只从内部擢升人员，这两点很出名。但这家总部位于辛辛那提的公司还有一点也很出名，那就是，谁要是选择离开该公司，那么公司就会视其为被驱逐者，尽管“校友会”的花名册上有许多美国商界的明星人物，包括通用电气(General Electric)的杰弗里•伊梅尔特(Jeffrey Immelt)、3M的吉姆•麦克纳尼(Jim McNerney)、电子港湾(eBay)的梅格•惠特曼(Meg Whitman)和微软(Microsoft)的斯蒂夫•鲍尔默(Steve Ballmer)。雷富礼是第一位欣然接受该校友会组织，并出席其聚会的宝洁首席执行官。
There was good reason for those present to be surprised. P&G was famous for recruiting high-flyers from the top universities and promoting only from within. But it was equally well known for treating as outcasts any who chose to leave the Cincinnati-based company, despite a roll-call of alumni that included many stars of US business, including Jeffrey Immelt of General Electric, Jim McNerney of 3M, Meg Whitman of eBay and Steve Ballmer of Microsoft. Mr Lafley was the first P&G chief executive ever to embrace the alumni organisation and attend one of its meetings.

这个姿态象征着他将带给公司的变革。公司上周以570亿美元收购吉列(Gillette)，这将把宝洁转变为全球最大的家居用品和个人护理企业。
The gesture was symbolic of the changes he would bring to the company that this week's planned $57bn purchase of Gillette will transform into the world's biggest household goods and personal care business by far.

雷富礼先生不仅削减了成本、重建了公司架构，还重新燃起了宝洁的创新精神。他重建公司架构的方式已成为其它许多消费品集团的范本。他还再造了企业文化，而把宝洁从一家墨守成规、内向型的公司转变为一家开放、外向型的公司。过去，宝洁那些身着西服领带的高管人员有“宝洁偏执狂”的绰号。
Mr Lafley has not only pruned costs, rebuilt the corporate structure in a way that has become a model for many other consumer goods groups, and rekindled P&G's spirit of innovation. He has also reinvented the culture, turning a hidebound, introspective company, whose besuited executives were nicknamed "Proctoids", into one that is open and outward-looking.

然而，雷富礼(Alan George Lafley，人们普遍称之为AG Lafley)几乎是在偶然的机会中接过宝洁的帅印，并发现该公司处于危机之中。他的前任迪克•雅格(Durk Jager)在位仅18个月就被赶下了台，之前雅格一直试图推行一项重组计划，该计划造成了公司的混乱，并导致公司在3个月内发布了3次盈利预警。
Yet Alan George Lafley, known universally as AG, took P&G's top job almost by accident - and found a company in crisis. Durk Jager, his predecessor, had been ousted after barely 18 months in the job, having attempted to drive through a restructuring plan that had brought chaos to the company and resulted in three profit warnings in three months.

当时，雷富礼先生负责宝洁亚洲和北美的业务，是为公司效力了23年的老臣。最重要的是，他代表了一种风格的转变。
Mr Lafley, then a 23-year veteran of P&G who had headed both its Asian and North American operations, represented, above all, a change of style.

行事激进的雅格先生倾向于威逼员工。他的风格同他前任的前任埃德•阿兹特(Ed Artzt)相似，后者在宝洁内部的绰号是“黑暗王子”。相反，雷富礼先生为人和蔼可亲，并采取众人认可的途径。他讲话声音不大，略带新英格兰味道的鼻音，还有一股子沉着自信。
The aggressive Mr Jager tended to intimidate employees. His style was similar to that of Ed Artzt, his predecessor-but-one, nicknamed the "Prince of Darkness" within P&G. Mr Lafley is, by contrast, affable and consensual in his approach. He speaks quietly, with a slightly nasal New England twang, and with a calm self-assurance.

雅格先生在1999年发起宝洁大改组，那是1997年公司“内省”的产物，那次内省涉及六名公司高管，包括雷富礼先生及前首席执行官白波(John Pepper)。这项大改组旨在使宝洁摆脱90年代的停滞状态，当时创新产品很少，公司眼看陷入了势头枯竭的危险。
The shake-up of P&G launched by Mr Jager in 1999 was the product of a 1997 "think-in" involving half a dozen senior executives, including Mr Lafley and John Pepper, the previous chief executive. It aimed to jolt P&G out of its torpor of the 1990s, when innovative products were thin on the ground and the company looked in danger of running out of steam.

宝洁按国家划分的领地将被扫除，代之以各全球业务部门组成的“矩阵”，这些部门分别管理各个产品领域，例如保健、美容、织物和家居护理用品等。这些部门将与一个区域市场开发机构网络进行合作，这些机构负责地区层面的营销和发布。
National P&G fiefdoms were to be swept away by a "matrix" of global business units managing product areas such as health and beauty, and fabric and homecare. These would work with a network of regional market development organisations charged with marketing and distribution at local level.

这一架构本该最终证明是正确的，但雅格先生在试图采用该架构时动作太快，并设定了过高的目标，导致局面混乱，还丧失了对公司主要产品的关注。雅格先生曾把公司年销售增长率的目标值定为7%至9%，雷富礼先生把这个过高的目标值降到更现实的4%至6%，并把每股收益增长率目标值从13%至15%降到不低于10%。
The structure would ultimately prove to be the right one, but Mr Jager attempted to introduce it too fast and set goals that were too demanding, causing dislocation and a loss of focus on its key products. Mr Lafley reduced Mr Jager's over-ambitious targets of 7 to 9 per cent growth in annual sales to a more realistic 4 to 6 per cent, and its 13 to 15 per cent earnings per share growth target to at least 10 per cent.

不出两年，宝洁的业绩不仅超过了这两个新目标，还超越了许多竞争对手。
Within two years, P&G was outperforming both its new targets and many of its competitors.

但是，雷富礼先生带来的文化变革或许比这种结构性改革更重要。西服消失了，取而代之的是雷富礼先生常在人前穿的敞领衬衫。辛辛那提市公司总部11楼几个全木装修的高管办公室也消失了，一些开放式会议和培训区域取代了它们。
Yet perhaps more important than the structural revamp were the cultural changes Mr Lafley brought in. Out went suits in favour of the open-necked shirts that Mr Lafley usually sports. Out, too, went the 11th-floor, wood-panelled executive offices in the Cincinnati headquarters, replaced by open-plan meeting and training areas.

他把公司的重点转回对消费者需求的回应上，而不光是想出创意并设法推销它们。他总是把“消费者才是老板”挂在嘴边。
He restored the company's focus on responding to consumers' needs, rather than just coming up with ideas and trying to find ways to market them. "The consumer is boss" is the mantra he repeats endlessly.

最重要的是，雷富礼先生坚称，宝洁不该再拒绝外部的创意，而要准备买进外部的创意和技术，同时，公司该将自己开发但不能利用的技术出卖或授权给别人。宝洁现在有个部门专门做这些事，还有一个科学家团队负责搜索互联网和科学刊物，看宝洁可以利用哪些科技突破。宝洁洗涤和家用产品部研发主管纳比勒•萨卡卜(Nabil Sakkab)说，该公司对待知识产权的态度已发生了“从克里姆林宫到雅典卫城”的大转变。
Most important, Mr Lafley insisted P&G should no longer refuse to look at ideas from outside but be prepared to buy in ideas and technology - as well as sell or license out technology it developed but could not use itself. It now has a unit devoted to doing those things and a team of scientists whose job is to scour the internet and scientific publications for breakthroughs P&G may be able to use. Nabil Sakkab, head of research and development at P&G's fabric and homecare division, says the company's attitude towards its intellectual property has changed from "the Kremlin to the Acropolis".

结果是一系列成功的产品推出，比如佳洁士电动牙刷 (Crest Spinbrush)、佳洁士净白牙贴(Crest Whitestrips)、速易洁(Swiffer)静电清洁产品，以及将Mr Clean系列家用清洁品牌扩展为汽车清洗系统“Mr Clean Autodry”。佳洁士电动牙刷的创意是一个企业家带给宝洁的。
The result has been a string of successful product introductions, such as the Crest Spinbrush, a battery-powered toothbrush brought to P&G by an entrepreneur, Whitestrips tooth-whitening strips, Swiffer electrostatic cleaning products and an extension of the Mr Clean household cleaning brand into a car washing system, Mr Clean Autodry.

不过，雷富礼先生的低调风格掩藏着敏锐的战略头脑和雄心壮志。在上周之前，他引导宝洁经历了该公司历来最大的两宗收购，对象分别是伊卡璐(Clairol)和威娜(Wella)护发业务。这两宗交易使公司业务重点发生了决定性转变，即转向利润更高的保健和美容业务。
But Mr Lafley's understated style masks a keen strategic mind and ambition. He led P&G through what were, until this week, its two biggest acquisitions - of the Clairol and Wella hair care businesses. Those deals shifted the company's focus decisively towards higher-margin health and beauty businesses.

但收购吉列的交易将令上述交易相形见绌，并意味着大得多的整合挑战。雷富礼先生不动声色号令公司的做法，将是完成整合的一个关键。另一个关键将是，成功地把以消费者为中心的理念应用到扩大后的集团中。这种理念是他为宝洁恢复的。“我们想成为消费者推动型公司，”他说，“我们想成为市场推动型公司。我们不想从某个象牙塔里推出什么东西。”
But the Gillette purchase dwarfs them, and will represent a far bigger integration challenge. Mr Lafley's quietly authoritative approach will be one key to making the takeover work. Another will be the successful application to the enlarged group of the consumer focus that he has restored to P&G. "We want to be consumer-driven," he says. "We want to be market-driven. We don't want to be pushing something out of an ivory tower somewhere

大西洋两岸的石油消费国昨天草拟了有关计划，以确保能源供应并减少石油消耗。计划出台的背景是各国对油价上涨的日益担心、潜在的恐怖主义威胁，以及中国石油需求的一路飙升。


在美国，著名的国家安全鹰派人士与环境保护主义者结成了本不可能缔结的联盟，共同游说美国立法者制定计划，减少对外国进口石油的依赖，并将此作为实现国家安全至关重要的一步。

他们的建议被称为“解放美利坚”(Set America Free)，重点是减少运输部门的石油消耗。运输部门的石油消耗量占美国国内需求的约三分之二。该建议设想，在未来四年内向汽车制造商和消费者支付120亿美元激励资金，以创造一个灵活燃料汽车市场，鼓励使用气电混合动力汽车。

同时，欧盟最高能源官员昨天发誓说，将把欧盟的能源供应安全作为任期内的中心任务。11月上任的欧盟能源专员安德里斯•毕博斯(Andris Piebalgs)说：“我未来数月最重要的优先事务是能源效率和能源供应安全。”他说，能源价格的上涨以及各新兴经济体对石油和天然气的胃口不断变大，决策者面临的形势与五年前相比“已有实质性变化”。

随着美国天气寒冷，油价已接近每桶50美元。欧佩克(OPEC)各成员国的部长本周末将在维也纳开会。交易员们越来越相信，去年30%的油价升幅宣告了一个较高油价时代的来临，2010年前交货的美国石油期货价格已达每桶40美元以上。

上周一些欧佩克成员国部长呼吁减产后，来自科威特、阿联酋、伊朗、委内瑞拉和印尼的部长本周都表示，欧佩克应维持当前每天2700万桶的石油生产配额。

欧佩克最大产油国沙特的石油部长阿里•纳伊米(Ali Naimi)说，欧佩克有能力等一段时间再做出改变产油政策的决定。

Oil consumers on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday outlined plans to secure energy supplies and reduce consumption amid growing concern over rising oil prices, potential terrorist threats and surging demand from avoracious China.


In the US, prominent national security hawks have formed an unlikely alliance with environmentalists to lobby US law-makers with a plan to reduce dependence on foreign oil imports as a vital step towards achieving national security.

Their proposal, called “Set America Free”, focuses on reducing oil consumption by the transportation sector, which accounts for about two-thirds of domestic demand. It envisages paying $12bn in incentives over four years to carmakers and consumers to create a market for flexible-fuel cars and encourage the use of hybrid gas-electric cars.

It came as the European Union's top energy official yesterday vowed to put the security of the bloc's energy supply at the heart of his tenure. AndrisPiebalgs, appointed EU energy commissioner in November, said: “My most important priorities in the coming months are energy efficiency and security of supply.” He said higher energy prices and the growing appetite for oil and gas from emerging economies presented policymakers with a “substantially changed” situation compared with five years ago.


Ministers from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meet this weekend in Vienna as the oil price has been propelled towards $50 a barrel amid cold weather in the US. Traders increasingly believe that last year's 30 per cent rise in oil prices, has ushered in an era of higher oil prices with US oil futures priced at over $40 a barrel for the rest of the decade.

After some Opec ministers last week called for production cuts, ministers from Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Venezuela and Indonesia this week all said Opec should maintain its current quota of 27m barrels a day.

Ali Naimi, the oil minister for Saudi Arabia Opec's largest producer, said Opec could afford to wait a little longer before any decision is taken to alter the cartel's production policy.

“Opec needs to wait until we get closer to the second quarter, possibly in the March meeting, possibly longer,” Mr Naimi told Reuters. But high prices are already provoking a reaction in consuming countries. Frank Gaffney, president of the Center for Security Policy and a former assistant secretary of defence under Ronald Reagan, outlined the “Set America Free” plan yesterday, saying a “perfect storm” of geopolitical, economic and environmental concerns had created the need for urgent action.

Mr Gaffney said a policy of denying oil revenue to some oil exporters would help “erode the grasp of tyrannies round the world” that use oil resources to “prop themselves up, oppress their people and threaten us.” He urged President George W. Bush to use his position to educate the American public about the dangers of foreign oil dependence. “This is. . . an incipient national security emergency and must be addressed as such,” he said.

The group of conservative Washington think-tanks plans to bring the blueprint to Congress with hopes of producing legislation this year.

Mr Piebalgs, responsible for co-ordinating EU energy policy, said energy efficiency could come through lower consumption, by forcing household goods manufacturers to make their products more efficient and insisting on greener buildings.